Long before the world was brought to its knees by COVID-19, science writer David Quammen sounded the alarm.
In his 2012 book Spillover: Animal Infections and the Next Human Pandemic, Quammen drew on interviews with leading virologists and epidemiologists to issue a chilling prediction: a deadly coronavirus could jump from wild animals to humans, likely in a wet market in China — and spark a global health crisis.
He was right.
Now, in an exclusive interview with the Daily Mail, Quammen says he’s even more worried about what’s coming next.
The “next big one,” he warns, may already be silently spreading — and faster than scientists realize.
His top concern? Bird flu.
Quammen and other public health experts say the virus, which is now sweeping rapidly through farm animals, has the potential to ignite the next pandemic — and this time, the United States could be in the direct line of fire.
David Quammen, the science writer who famously predicted the COVID-19 pandemic years before it struck, has a new warning—and it’s just as chilling.
More than 1,000 herds of dairy cows, 168 million chickens, and over 70 human cases—including the first recorded U.S. death—have already been affected by the ongoing H5N1 bird flu outbreak. Quammen, who foresaw the rise of a coronavirus pandemic in his 2012 book Spillover, now says bird flu has the highest potential to spark the next global health crisis.
“I have high concerns about bird flu,” Quammen told the Daily Mail in an exclusive interview. “If you’re going to make a prediction about what would be the next big one now, a scientist would probably say, well, bird flu has the best chance of being our next pandemic virus.”
But it’s not just about chance—it’s about mutation.
“These viruses have high mutation rates,” Quammen said. “And mutation is basically a random process.” That randomness, he warns, is like spinning a roulette wheel—with billions of spins happening every day.
A Deadly Game of Viral Roulette
Each time the bird flu virus replicates—in millions of chickens, cows, and wild birds worldwide—it creates a new opportunity for mutation. And if just the right combination of changes occurs, the virus could gain the ability to spread easily between humans.
“It might take four or five mutations of just the right combination,” he explained. “Each is a highly improbable event—but the more you spin the wheel, the more likely it becomes. And right now, we’re spinning that wheel billions and billions of times.”
The current H5N1 strain has already infected a range of mammals—cats, raccoons, skunks, wild canines, bears, and even dolphins—since it was first detected in the U.S. in 2022. The first American fatality occurred in Louisiana earlier this year. The victim, over 65 and with preexisting conditions, had direct contact with sick birds. Genetic analysis revealed the virus had mutated inside their body, raising alarm among virologists.
No Human-to-Human Spread—Yet
So far, there is no confirmed evidence of bird flu spreading between humans. Most of the 70 U.S. cases since March 2024 have been mild and linked to farmworkers exposed to infected animals. However, in two troubling instances—one involving a toddler in California and another an adult in Missouri—health officials could not determine how the patients became infected.
Meanwhile, the CDC maintains that the current risk to the public is low. But experts caution that reassortments—when two viruses mix genetic material inside a host—could alter that risk quickly.
The Global Virus Network (GVN) is urging governments to act now by tightening biosecurity and increasing global surveillance to prevent a potential outbreak similar to the early days of COVID-19.
Factory Farms: A Breeding Ground for the Next Pandemic
According to Quammen, the rise of industrial-scale farming is accelerating the threat.
“These mass industrial-scale animal husbandry operations are dangerous for everybody,” he warned. “Not just the people who buy poultry or pork from those operations. They are petri dishes for the evolution of viruses.”
He also flagged the presence of bird flu in American milk, calling it a serious concern for both food safety and public health. The danger isn’t just in consumption—it’s in farmworkers who may contract the virus and unknowingly pass it on.
Humanity’s Role in Its Own Risk
Ultimately, Quammen believes humanity itself is fueling the emergence of pandemic threats.
“It’s not just the number of people on Earth,” he said. “It’s population size multiplied by consumption.”
This overconsumption, combined with the destruction of wild ecosystems and the intensification of agriculture, is pushing dangerous viruses from animals into humans—and giving them the perfect opportunity to go global.
“When we disrupt ecosystems where viruses are quietly circulating in wild animals,” he explained, “we give those viruses a chance to jump into humans. And for the virus, that’s like winning the sweepstakes.”
Rethinking How We Live, Eat, and Grow
According to Quammen, modern farming practices are not only unsustainable—they’re dangerously fertile ground for viral evolution.
“We are producing animal protein in domestic animals on a factory scale,” he said. “High concentrations of animals—hundreds of thousands of pigs, millions of chickens—crammed together on a single farm or even inside one building.”
This overcrowded, industrialized system, he warns, creates the perfect storm for viruses like H5N1 to mutate, mix, and potentially leap into human populations.
To reduce the risk of future pandemics, Quammen urges both personal and systemic change—starting with our diets and climate action.
“Think twice about how much animal protein you buy and where you buy it,” he advised. Shifting away from meat-heavy consumption and supporting sustainable, local sources could be crucial in breaking the chain of viral spillover.
But his recommendations go even deeper.
Quammen also suggests we reflect on population growth and its long-term impact on the planet’s fragile ecosystems.
“Think twice about having children—and think twice about how many children you have,” he said. “Consider how much you’re adding to the human population on this planet.”